Chapter 276: Narrowing the Search

Anyone could talk tough, but reality left Gongsun Bu troubled. "Master Dao, the State of Qi is enormous. Judging from the searches we've already carried out, we'll probably keep getting the same result no matter how many times we repeat them. If we want to intensify the search, we need manpower. Wuliang Mountain simply doesn't have enough disciples on this side. Could we ask Tianyu Sect and the three sects to send people to reinforce us?"

Still staring at the map, Niu Youdao waved a hand. "Those factions have too many people and too many loose mouths. We may be able to use them elsewhere, but I don't trust them with this. I have another plan. For now, we can't alert them. Keep this as secret as possible."

Gongsun Bu and Black Peony exchanged a glance. Weren't they trying to sabotage Beizhou? Wouldn't it be better if they created enough commotion that Beizhou couldn't succeed?

Black Peony said, "Master Dao, Brother Gongsun is right. With the few people we currently have, trying to dig out clues across a place as large as the State of Qi really isn't enough. The other side will certainly be acting in secret too. They won't let outsiders discover them easily."

"Dig out clues?" Niu Youdao turned to look at her. "We already possess the biggest clue. We know what they're secretly trying to do. We know they intend to use sea transport. That is the biggest clue! We already hold the initiative. The enemy is in the open while we're hidden. There's no reason we shouldn't be able to find them. A fleet that large can't simply fly away. So long as their plan hasn't changed, I refuse to believe we can't locate them."

Gongsun Bu hesitated. "Could they already have succeeded? Could the ships have already departed?"

"Impossible!" Niu Youdao said. "We only learned about the State of Han water route when we were at Boundless Pavilion. Their side was still inspecting and verifying that route. Before they confirm the waterway is safe, there's no possibility they'd casually move this many warhorses out. Do they have so much money they don't know where else to spend it? The moment we learned what was happening, we immediately arranged for people to sweep the State of Qi's coastline. After hearing everything you two just explained, I have even more reason to believe those warhorses still haven't left the State of Qi."

He tapped the map with his fingers.

"Now let's sort through the clues we already have. Stop piling useless speculation on top of itself and clouding our own vision. Once we untangle the useful information, the direction of our search will naturally become clear."

"According to what you've said, building the ships from scratch is essentially impossible. That means the ships have to be modified."

"So let's start with the ships. Tell me: where do you think they would most likely carry out the modifications?"

As the leader of the group, he had to help the people beneath him organize their thoughts when circumstances grew complicated. A leader needed that ability.

Gongsun Bu considered the question. "As Sister Peony said earlier, that many ships probably can't all come from one place. It would attract too much attention. They may be secretly hiring vessels from several different states."

Niu Youdao asked, "Could they be modifying the ships at the ports where each one originally puts out to sea?"

Black Peony shook her head. "Not very likely."

"Why?"

"Master Dao, you may not know this. As I said before, ordinary people don't use large seagoing ships like these. Anyone who owns such a vessel is generally either rich or powerful. They certainly aren't ordinary commoners. Especially shipowners involved in trade between states—they all have some kind of backing. Without the owner's consent, you couldn't simply alter his ship. And turning a cargo ship into a vessel for carrying warhorses means building stall after stall inside the hold. Those partitions would be far too obvious."

Gongsun Bu nodded. "Exactly. There are too many ships, and they can't all come from the same place. If owners in many different locations all noticed the same strange modifications, and every one of those shipowners had some background, doing the work separately would make leaks far too likely. That leaves only one possibility. They hire the vessels in advance without telling the owners their true purpose."

Niu Youdao narrowed his eyes, considering their words.

Black Peony followed the line of reasoning. "Then there's only one likely answer. They have to move the ships away first, then send them to a secret location for refitting. Once the vessels reach that destination and are under control, whether the crews agree to the modifications probably won't be up to them."

Niu Youdao said slowly, "So before the ships arrive, the crews likely have no idea what they're actually going to be used for."

"That should be the case," Black Peony said. "And it would be easy enough to arrange. These vessels are in the transport business. Pay the customer fee first and the owner naturally sails wherever the buyer requests. They wouldn't tell the crews the truth beforehand either. That would make the secret far too easy to leak."

Niu Youdao's eyes returned to the map. "Then where is this hidden refitting site most likely to be?"

Gongsun Bu and Black Peony looked at the map as well.

Gongsun Bu said, "Refitting that many large vessels would be extremely conspicuous. They probably wouldn't leave the ships sitting beside an inhabited stretch of mainland coast. If that's the case, our previous search may have been aimed in the wrong direction. The other side may be carrying out the modifications on an island that isn't easily discovered."

"An island?" Niu Youdao asked. "Why couldn't it be some deserted stretch of coastline?"

Gongsun Bu replied, "Our disciples divided up and inspected the State of Qi's entire coastline. They found nothing unusual."

Niu Youdao asked, "Could they be using the coastline of another state?"

"Not very likely," Black Peony said, shaking her head.

"Why?"

"First, this many ships couldn't possibly travel as one enormous fleet. That would be far too conspicuous. Anyone who saw them would become suspicious. Second, too many unexpected things happen at sea. If the ships travel separately, there's no way to guarantee that every vessel arrives at the loading point on time. If the distance is too great, a delay at sea can become far more than a minor delay. When Heaven turns temperamental out on the ocean, not even cultivators can control it."

"Once the other side gathers the warhorses in one place, they have to make sure the ships arrive in time to load them. Otherwise, leaving a huge number of horses sitting near the coast for too long makes accidents and discovery far more likely. For an operation planned this carefully, the rendezvous and loading stage is one of the most critical points. How could they fail to account for the risk of timing?"

"So putting the refitting site in some distant foreign state is unlikely. They need to guarantee that once everything is ready, the horses can be loaded and moved out at any moment. If they want tight control over timing at sea, distance becomes crucial. The ships probably aren't being refitted abroad. The site should still be somewhere in the State of Qi's own waters. So I agree with Brother Gongsun. It has to be on some island off the coast of the State of Qi."

Once Niu Youdao helped them organize the problem and define the direction, something that had previously seemed completely without a starting point suddenly became much simpler. Their deductions grew more focused and better grounded. It felt as though they were drawing closer to the target.

There was no helping it. Niu Youdao did not know enough about maritime matters to make an accurate judgment on his own.

All he could do was guide the people around him, draw out their experience, and pool everyone's thinking to solve the problem together.

"Good. We've narrowed the target area." Niu Youdao nodded. "I trust your judgment. The place is on an island in the State of Qi's waters." Then he jabbed a finger heavily at the sea beside the State of Qi on the map. "But we still don't have enough manpower. Even if we did, the State of Qi's waters are enormous. Throwing more people at the whole sea would still be like tossing stones into an abyss. Based on what we already know, narrow the search area again."

Black Peony repeated her earlier point. "Because they need precise control over the timing of the rendezvous and loading, the island can't be too far from the State of Qi's coastline."

Gongsun Bu considered the matter. "If it's on an island, then the island also has to be somewhere people don't easily discover."

Black Peony hesitated. "Not too far away, yet difficult to discover... then it would have to lie away from commonly traveled sea routes."

Niu Youdao asked, "What circumstances would satisfy all those conditions?"

Black Peony answered uncertainly, "If it isn't too far away and still isn't easily discovered, then the surrounding waters are probably complicated and dangerous enough that passing ships normally detour around them."

"As for whether there are other possibilities, I can't say for certain."

Niu Youdao looked toward the frowning Gongsun Bu. "Anything to add?"

Gongsun Bu hesitated. "Sister Peony is more familiar with the sea than I am. I think that's probably the main possibility."

Niu Youdao asked, "Can we narrow the search any further?"

He knew perfectly well how little information they possessed about Shao Pingbo's side. They did not even know who was actually handling the warhorse operation for him.

Niu Youdao suspected Xiaoyue Pavilion might be involved, but even if it was, he knew almost nothing about Xiaoyue Pavilion itself.

Here in the State of Qi, he was unfamiliar with both the people and the place. For the moment, he had no other direction from which to begin. The only thing he knew for certain was that the horses would travel by sea.

Without knowing the movements of the people involved, he could only keep his eyes fixed on the ships and use that as the point of breakthrough. Black Peony and Gongsun Bu looked at each other. After thinking for a while, both slowly shook their heads.

"Fine. Then search according to this logic." Niu Youdao slapped his palm against the stretch of the State of Qi's coastal waters on the map and issued his orders.

"First, have your disciples question people who regularly go to sea. Find out which waters match the conditions we just described. At the same time, ask whether there are any other factors that create areas where ships are unlikely to be seen."

"Once you've identified the possible waters, send people to patrol them or wait there."

"I don't care whether they watch the sea routes or use some other method. Do whatever is most convenient. The moment you find ships matching our criteria heading toward places they normally shouldn't go, follow them immediately and investigate."

"Do not alert the snake by striking the grass."

"As for manpower, we still can't use the people assigned elsewhere. Issue orders immediately and summon Wuliang Mountain's agents from the surrounding states. Have them secretly hurry here and carry out this mission first."

"I want results as soon as possible so I can formulate the next stage of the plan."

"Remember: this operation must remain secret. Make that requirement strict for everyone below."

"All right!" Gongsun Bu nodded. "I'll arrange it immediately."

Black Peony saw him out. When the door opened and the two parted, they exchanged a smile. Something that had previously seemed completely without direction now felt almost as though it had been brought within their grasp. Whether the plan would actually succeed was another matter. Neither dared guarantee that. They nodded to each other, and the door closed. When Black Peony returned inside, she found Niu Youdao still staring at the map.

Unable to resist, she stepped forward and asked, "Master Dao, didn't you say back at Boundless Pavilion that as long as the warhorses were still inside the State of Qi, it wasn't the State of Han's turn to stop them?"

"If we simply had people from the court of the State of Qi investigate, wouldn't that save us all this trouble?"

Niu Youdao seemed to answer himself more than her.

"First, let's feel out the situation."

[End of Chapter 276]